638
FXUS65 KVEF 241050
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
350 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Above normal temperatures persist, with isolated to scattered
  showers and thunderstorms continuing through this afternoon,
  generally focused along I-15.

* Strong winds and dry conditions return Friday and continue into
  the weekend, yielding increased fire weather concerns and cooler
  temperatures through Sunday.

* Decreased winds and gradually warming temperatures expected next
  week, though temperatures remain below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Early this morning, the initial band of elevated showers and
isolated thunderstorms is pushing northward across southern Inyo,
Central Clark, and northern Mohave Counties, with the next band
following on its heels, expected to reach the Las Vegas Valley by
sunrise. Rainfall amounts thus far have been paltry at best,
generally sprinkles to a couple hundredths of an inch, with this
trend expected to continue through this afternoon. Downdraft CAPE
generally ranges from around 1200-1500 J/kg, increasing to around
1800 J/kg toward the southern Great Basin, with the persistently
dry subcloud layer acting to evaporate rain before it can reach
the surface, in spite of mid-level moisture yielding precipitable
water values ranging from around 175 to 225 percent of normal.
Later this morning, high-resolution CAM guidance is in fairly good
agreement that coverage of storms will increase, with continued
threat of downburst winds and lightning strikes, particularly
along and just north of I-15 as convection gradually drifts
northeastward through the afternoon. By early this evening, most
convective activity is expected to be northeast of the area, with
drier conditions to follow tonight onward. Temperatures today cool
several degrees from yesterday`s highs thanks to the push of mid-
level moisture, but will remain slightly above normal for most of
the area. With the drying expected on Thursday, temperatures will
receive a slight bump, but it will be short-lived.

Late this week into the weekend, an anomalously potent trough for
this time of year will translate out of the Pacific Northwest,
deepening over the Great Basin. This trough will bring a return of
gusty southerly to southwesterly winds to the region, scouring
out any remaining moisture from this midweek system. Winds
increase markedly on Friday, especially across the western Mojave
Desert, Inyo County, and the higher terrain, with these winds
gradually becoming more widespread through Saturday, which looks
to be the windiest day. Gusts to 25 to 45 mph will be common, with
local enhancements expected in areas favored for terrain-driven
downslope winds. Impacts are expected to be hazardous driving
conditions due to crosswinds and localized blowing dust, dangerous
boating conditions on area lakes, as well as a return of critical
fire weather conditions. Given the substantial drying expected
with these winds, afternoon RHs will drop to around 5 to 15
percent for most locations, with concerns for not only new wind-
driven wildfires, but realization of new fire-starts due to
lightning strikes with the current system moving through the area.
Additional details can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion
below.

Breezy conditions will linger into Sunday, which looks to be the
coolest day of the forecast as the aforementioned trough moves
over the area. Highs Sunday will be as much as 10 to 15 degrees
below normal for late June, before a gradual warming trend begins
Monday as ridging attempts to build westward into the region.
Despite this warming trend, temperatures through midweek next week
look to remain below normal, with lighter winds and dry
conditions expected to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Low
confidence wind forecast through at least mid afternoon as scattered
showers and isolated storms develop in and around the valley. Winds
are likely to be erratic and greatly influenced by the nearby
convection with gusts up to 25 knots possible. However,
precipitation should be fairly light and cloud bases around 10kft.
Best rain chances appear to be between 14z and 18z. Chance of
vicinity lightning around 25%. Activity should wane by mid/late
afternoon, allowing southerly breezes to return and improving sky
conditions.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
isolated storms continue across the Mojave Desert this morning,
becoming focused in southeastern NV and northwestern AZ in the
afternoon. Expect erratic and potentially gusty winds near the more
robust activity. Otherwise, breezes should favor a southerly to
westerly direction this afternoon. Cloud bases around 10kft.
Convection may linger in our far northeastern areas into the evening
hours, but should cease elsewhere by mid/late afternoon with
improving sky conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

This morning, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of
San Bernardino County, including the Mojave Preserve. Showers with
embedded isolated thunderstorms will continue moving north-
northeastward across that area through this morning, with
associated lightning strikes and gusty downburst winds with little
rainfall expected to yield increased concern for new fire starts.
This threat will lessen as convection moves out of that area
through this afternoon. Of more substantial concern are fairly
widespread critical fire weather conditions expected to develop
Friday afternoon and persist through Saturday evening as remaining
moisture is quickly scoured out by increasing southerly to
southwesterly winds. 20ft winds will gust upwards of 30 to 45 mph
at times, with the strongest gusts in favored areas across the
higher terrain. These winds combined with min RHs around 5 to 15
percent and poor nocturnal recovery will lead to high fire danger,
with concern for the development of new wind-driven wildfires,
some of which may be initiated by lightning strikes associated
with today`s convective activity. A Fire Weather Watch is in
effect for most of the area Friday morning through Saturday
evening, with slowly improving conditions expected Sunday onward
as temperatures drop below normal and winds decrease heading into
next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Phillipson
AVIATION...Woods

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office