832
FXUS65 KVEF 021056
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
256 AM PST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooling temperatures and breezy conditions expected today and
  Tuesday.

* Temperatures cool further and gusty winds return mid-to-late week
  as a weather system pushes through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.

This morning will experience a few more record daily warm minimum
temperatures (details in the CLIMATE section below), but as a weak
weather system pushes through the southern Great Basin, afternoon
high temperatures will cool 3 to 6 degrees compared to Sunday`s
highs. In addition to cooling temperatures, this weather system will
increase west-southwesterly wind gusts across the Mojave Desert,
generally between 25 and 35 mph. The stronger winds will be in the
western Mojave Desert / western San Bernardino County where west
winds will gust to 50 mph and where a Wind Advisory remains in
effect for this area through 10 PM PST tonight. Afternoon high
temperatures decrease another 2 to 4 degrees on Tuesday, though
temperatures will remain 8 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals for
early March. Additionally, as the weak system pushes eastward out of
our forecast area, gusty northerly winds will focus along the
Colorado River Valley Tuesday afternoon, which will increase wave
heights on Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu to up to 3 feet.

Brief ridging will bring a slight increase to temperatures on
Wednesday before a stronger weather system drops along the
California Coast mid-to-late week. As this system approaches our
forecast area on Wednesday, pressure gradients will tighten,
resulting in gusty west-northwest winds across the southwestern
Great Basin and western Mojave Deserts. Ensemble means are coming
into better agreement that this system will then dig into southern
Nevada before pushing toward the Baja Thursday into Friday. Expect
breezy west-southwesterly pre-frontal winds on Wednesday, and gusty
north-northwesterly post-frontal winds on Thursday and Friday,
likely resulting in widespread wind-related headlines. There remains
some uncertainty regarding the placement and strength of this
system, so check back to the forecast if you have outdoor plans
later in the work week. Ridging returns to the forecast next
weekend, resulting in increasing temperatures once again.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds
early this morning will be variable at times, but should eventually
favor a southwesterly direction. Elevated southwesterly winds with
peak gusts between 25 and 30 knots will pick up later this morning,
lasting through the afternoon. Gusts will end around sunset but
sustained winds persist over 10 knots, shifting to the northwest
between 03 and 06Z. There is a 20 to 30 percent probability of
speeds reaching over 10 knots after 06Z. SCT to BKN clouds at or
above 15kft persist through the evening, clearing overnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Gusty southwesterly
winds pick up later this morning across much of the Mojave Desert.
Expect gusts to peak in the 20 to 30 knot range, with stronger gusts
up to 35 knots near KDAG. Overall, gusts should start to diminish
after sunset. Gusty northwesterly winds pick up in the Owens Valley
near KBIH later this morning with a frontal passage, reaching the
Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley tonight. SCT to BKN mid
and high clouds will persist will start to clear out later today.
&&


.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast warm low
temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record this morning.

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN       MON, MAR 2
               Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      57(2016)*
Bishop         43(2009)
Needles        65(1989)
Daggett        55(1990)*
Kingman        59(1904)
Desert Rock    54(1990)*
Death Valley 76(1936)
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Meltzer
CLIMATE...Meltzer

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office