658
FXUS65 KVEF 121116
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
416 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
  across the region today, with precipitation chances lingering
  into Tuesday for Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave Counties.

* Breezy conditions and cooler than normal temperatures will
  continue through the week, with the first freeze of the season
  possible for portions of the Owens Valley and southwestern Great
  Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

Late night radar and satellite imagery show ongoing showers across
Clark, Lincoln, and Mohave Counties as an upper-level trough pushes
into the area. This trough will continue its slow trek east today,
with isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across
the region today as a result. Moisture across the region will not be
as abundant as it was on Sunday when Rachel`s remnants moved
through, so widespread flash flooding is not expected to pose as
great of a threat today. However, isolated instances of flash
flooding will be possible with stronger storms that develop. In
addition to isolated instances of flash flooding, lightning, gusty
thunderstorm winds, and localized moderate-to-heavy rain will be
possible with storms today. The upper-level trough will continue to
dig through the region on Tuesday, with around a 20 to 50 percent
chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Arizona
Strip, northeastern Clark County, and eastern Lincoln County on
Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, precipitation chances will have
disappeared from the area as the trough shifts off to our east.

In addition to showers and thunderstorms, this trough will also
breezy conditions to southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and
southeastern California. Breezy southerly winds are expected today
with peak gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range this afternoon. Winds will
shift to the northwest on Tuesday as a cold front swings through the
area, with breezier northerly winds lingering through the work week.
As the cold front moves through, some of the cities/towns in the
northwestern portion of our forecast area will have a shot at their
first freeze of the season. Currently, the NBM boasts an 80 to 95%
chance of freezing temperatures on Tuesday morning for the Bishop
and Dyer areas, where a Freeze Watch remains in effect. Looking at
the rest of the region, temperatures on Tuesday will run around 15
to 20 degrees cooler than normal. Beyond Tuesday, temperatures will
gradually rebound during the second half of the week with
temperatures approaching normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...
Scattered showers will continue to be possible across the Valley
through the afternoon, although the probability of seeing
precipitation directly at the field is low. Southerly winds early
this morning will turn more to the southwest and become gusty by
18Z.  Occasional gusts of 22 to 27 knots can be expected through
sunset before diminishing.  A turn to the northwest is expected
Tuesday morning, but confidence in the timing of the shift is low at
this time. CIGs around 10kft AGL will be seen into this evening,
followed by improving skies overnight. It is possible that CIGs
could fall to 7kft to 8kft AGL if shower activity becomes more
robust than expected today.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible across the
eastern half of the region this afternoon, potentially resulting in
impacts at all regional TAF sites except KDAG. Winds will remain
light into mid-morning before gusty south to southwest winds
develop. The exception will be KBIH, where a turn to the north is
expected after 21Z. CIGs between 8kft and 10kft AGL are expected at
most regional TAF sites into this evening, followed by improving
skies overnight at most locations. Near shower and thunderstorm
activity today, CIGs could fall to 7kft to 8kft AGL and localized
reductions in visibility may be seen.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Planz

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office