364
FXUS65 KVEF 162004
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
104 PM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Windy conditions are expected areawide as a cold front sweeps
  from northwest to southeast across the Desert Southwest. This
  will generate blowing dust and lead to high waves and dangerous
  boating conditions on area lakes.

* Warming conditions are expected over the weekend as upper
  ridging builds in.

* Increased southwesterly winds return during the first half of
  next week as another slow moving storm moves in along the
  California coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A powerful upper trough will move from the Pacific Northwest
across the Northern and Central Rockies through tonight. As this
feature shifts north and east of the region, it will bring a one-
two punch of gusty winds. Breezy southwesterly winds have already
taken shape across much of the region, and as a cold front surges
south, gusty northerly winds will ensue this evening into early
tomorrow morning. While winds head of the front will be quite
breezy, the strongest winds will occur in the wake of it. Ensemble
probabilities of 35-45 mph wind gusts range from 40-70% areawide,
with the greatest probabilities confined to the higher terrain
and the Colorado River Valley. In fact, given the favorable wind
direction, the Colorado River Valley will likely see some of the
stronger winds in this event. Areas around Bullhead City and
Laughlin have around a 40-60% chance of gusts in the 50-60 mph
range late tonight into early Friday. However, winds of this
magnitude should be rather localized and short lived. These
enhanced winds will lead to areas of blowing dust, which may
result in reduced visibilities and degraded air quality.
Additionally, area lakes will see increased wave action and
hazardous boating conditions, especially on Lakes Mead, Mohave and
Havasu. Winds will improve for most areas by Friday afternoon and
evening, however the Colorado River Valley will remain breezy
into the weekend with the favorable northerly direction.

A shot of cooler air will spill into the Desert Southwest in the
wake of the cold front, but this looks to be short lived. A broad
upper ridge will result in warming temperatures and lighter winds
over the weekend. This will allow daytime highs to rise back above
normal Sunday into Monday. This ridge will largely be reinforced
by a deepening cutoff low set to meander off the California coast.

Medium to long range ensembles are in generally good agreement
with the progression of the cutoff low, although it has trended
slower over the last few days. As this feature eventual works
into the Southwestern U.S. mid next week, it will induce a broad
but strong southwesterly flow. This will likely result in periods
of breezy to windy conditions during the coming week, though
confidence on timing and or intensity of any shortwave impulses
remains too low to pin down any specific timeframes. Eventually
this feature is likely to migrate into the Western U.S. bringing
cooler conditions and potential some precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Breezy
southwest winds will continue this afternoon with a few gusts
25-30 knots. Scattered to broken mid and high clouds will stream
across the region. A fast moving front will result in a northerly
wind shift beginning in the 06-07z timeframe. Winds will then
persist into the day on Friday, gradually decreasing by mid to
late afternoon and becoming more northeasterly. The strongest
winds will occur in the 08-15z timeframe, when gusts as high as
30-40 knots can be expected. Clouds will generally clear from
north to south in the wake of the front and no precipitation is
expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...For all terminals
aside from KBIH, expect west/southwest winds of 10-20 knots and
gusts 20 to 30 knots ahead of a fast moving cold front. Winds will
shift to the northwest and north this evening into the overnight
hours becoming quite gusty in the wake of the front. Widespread
wind gusts of 30-40 knots are expected immediately behind the
front. The strongest winds will be confined to the Colorado River
Vally, including KIFP and KEED, where winds may briefly gust 40-50
knots Friday morning into the afternoon hours. Across the Owens
Valley including KBIH, rather light winds this morning should
eventually give way to northwest/northerly winds 10-15 knots,
gusting 30-35 knots. Mid and high level clouds will move ahead of
and immediately behind the front, with gradual clearing overnight.
Other than the gusty winds, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Austin


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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office