832
FXUS65 KPSR 020951
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
251 AM MST Mon Mar 2 2026

.UPDATE...12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures today will again be around records, especially for
  Phoenix as highs top out at or just over 90 degrees.

- A series of dry weather systems will influence the region during
  the remainder of the week leading to periods of breezy
  conditions and cooler but still above normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The unseasonably strong high pressure ridge that brought record
temperatures the last few days is starting to push eastward out of
the region as a Pacific trough moves through northern California
into the Great Basin. Despite the fairly rapid height falls
occurring today, the lingering warm air mass will allow for highs
to again reach 90 degrees for much of the lower deserts. The NBM
is showing a 90% probability of Phoenix tying today`s record high
of 90 degrees. Higher level clouds will again be around the region
today, most likely mainly affecting the western deserts through
this afternoon before moving through south-central and eastern
Arizona this evening and tonight. The passage of the Pacific
trough across the Great Basin will help to bring a return of
breezy conditions today with much of the area seeing periodic
gusts up to around 25 mph.

The center of the trough is forecast to move into Colorado early
on Tuesday with a trailing trough axis moving across our area by
the afternoon. Modestly cooler air aloft will usher into the area
with H8 temperatures showing around a 3-4C drop. This will help to
lower daytime highs on Tuesday into the mid 80s across the lower
deserts. The passage of the trough will also help to usher in even
drier air behind it with clear skies expected on Tuesday. A quick
moving shortwave ridge will be set to move through on Wednesday as
temperatures remain stable. Model guidance is in good agreement a
larger trough will then dive southward through the Pacific
Northwest into our region Wednesday night into Thursday, but the
system will contain very little moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main forecast concern late week into early next week is the
uncertainty with a potential cut-off low that could develop near
our region and linger for several days. The initial development of
the system begins on Wednesday across Oregon and California before
likely moving through Nevada into our region by Thursday. Models
have been in good agreement with the initial development of the
system, but high uncertainty remains with the eventual track and
how long it may impact our region. Increase winds will be the
first aspect that will affect our region with breezy to locally
windy conditions over much of the area starting Thursday. A cooler
air mass should also move in for Thursday, lowering daytime highs
down to around 80 degrees for the lower deserts.

By Friday into Saturday, guidance indicates the low may become
cut off from the main flow. If this occurs, it would likely
retrograde to the southwest, possibly stalling out somewhere to
our southwest for a day or more into early next week. Given the
system is expected to contain very little system moisture as it
initially moves through our region late this week, no realistic
precipitation chances are forecast. For our region to receive any
chances for precipitation, the low would have to become cut-off
and stall out to our southwest for at least a day or two allowing
moisture to get entrained into the system and eventually making
its way northward. The EPS is more bullish on this potential
solution as its ensemble mean QPF shows an average of 0.10-0.20"
across southern and central Arizona later Sunday into next
Monday. The GEFS also attempts to show some precipitation chances
around the same time, but to a much lesser degree. Forecast
temperatures for next weekend into early next week are also quite
uncertain as they will depend on the evolution of the low, but we
are still expected to keep above normal temperatures in place.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0950Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Winds will start off this morning out of the E-SE with speeds
mainly aob 8 kts. By 19Z-21Z this afternoon, winds will shift out
of the W-SW and become elevated with speeds reaching 8-13 kts and
gusts up to 15-20 kts at all terminals. Gustiness will subside
by sunset this evening. SCT to at times BKN cirrus clouds will
continue to progress through the region into tonight.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Westerly winds will prevail at both terminals through the forecast
period. Speeds will remain generally aob 8 kts this morning before
increasing out of the W-SW heading into the afternoon. Gusts up
to 20-25 kts are expected to materialize at both terminals by mid-
afternoon. Gustiness will subside around sunset this evening. SCT
to BKN cirrus will continue to pass overhead through much of the
day before clearing out late tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist this
week, however the overall weather pattern become more active with
a few dry systems influencing the region. Afternoon minRHs each
day will range between 10-15% areawide, followed by fair
overnight recoveries commonly between 30-50%. A passing dry
system today will act to increase afternoon and evening
breeziness, with widespread gusts 15-25 mph and locally higher
over the AZ high terrain and portions of Southeast CA. Expect
lingering breeziness Tuesday for the typical wind prone areas of
the western districts. Another dry weather system later this week
should again bring widespread breezy conditions by Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily High Temperature Records:

       Phoenix      Yuma      El Centro
      ---------   ---------   ---------
3/2   90 (2016)   94 (1910)   92 (2016)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office