186
FXUS66 KLOX 121040
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
340 AM PDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...11/345 PM.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely continue to through
at least Tuesday. Periods of light to moderate rain and a low
chance of thunderstorms will persist through Monday with below
normal temperatures. Beginning Tuesday and continuing through the
end of the week, weak to moderate offshore flow will bring warm
and dry conditions to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...12/252 AM.

A highly amplified upper level pattern has developed over the
eastern Pacific and it appears southwest California will be
experiencing quite a range of temperatures and weather conditions
over the next couple of weeks. The upper low over the area
yesterday and today that has brought scattered light showers and
much cooler temperatures will evolve into our first real Santa Ana
wind event of the season later in the week. For today though,
highs will mostly be in the 60s which is 10-20 degrees below with
some off and on light showers, mainly in the morning.

As the upper low slowly moves into the Great Basin, onshore
pressure gradients will be weakening and a light northeast flow
aloft will develop over the area as early as Tuesday afternoon.
Not expecting any winds of significance Tuesday but high
temperatures will warm up 4-8 degrees area-wide as the air mass
dries out and heights rise at least 10dam from Monday.

Wednesday will be noticeably warmer and drier as offshore
gradients continue to increase across the area heights climb
another 10dam. Still not expecting any significant winds yet
except possibly some northeast winds in the San Gabriel mountains
up to 35 mph.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...12/339 AM.

Santa Ana winds will really pick up Thursday into Friday as all
the ingredients appear be in place and properly aligned. We`re
still well outside the boundaries of the high res models but given
the amplified upper level pattern, confidence is higher than
usual at this early stage that a Santa Ana Wind event of at least
moderate strength will develop during this period. The latest
ensemble pressure gradients indicate that the peak offshore
gradient will occur Friday morning somewhere in the 5-7mb range.
Couple that with 50kt winds at 850 mb and very strong upper level
subsidence, that should result in peak winds of 50-70mph in the
San Gabriel mountains and 35-55mph across the LA/Ventura valleys
as well as the Ventura County coastal areas and Santa Monica
mountains. The ECMWF is already showing peak winds between 25 and
40 mph in Camarillo Thursday and increasing to 35-50 on Friday. As
a reminder, Santa Ana winds typically do not impact the LA Metro
area and LA coast.

Temperatures will be peaking during these days as well with highs
in the upper 80s and 90s across all coast and valleys, including
the Central Coast. There is a very strong chance (60-80%) that
heat advisories will be needed for coastal areas Fri and Sat.
However, mid 90s in the inland areas would not likely meet
criteria there.

Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal through
Sunday but slowly cooling into next week. And looking out a little
further there is fairly high agreement in the models that another
cold upper low will move into the area the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...12/0535Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, there was neither a marine layer nor a marine
inversion. A moist layer was present around 4000 to 5000 feet.

Overall, low to moderate confidence in TAFs. There is a threat of
sprinkles or very light showers at all sites, but higher chances
for LA coast and valley TAF sites. There will be 20-40% chance of
MVFR CIGs at all sites.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Short periods of sprinkles or
light showers are possible into Monday morning. There is a 30%
chance of MVFR CIGs anytime during the TAF period. No significant
easterly winds are expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Short periods of sprinkles or
light showers are possible through Monday morning. There is a 40%
chance of MVFR CIGs anytime during the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...11/813 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through Monday afternoon, high confidence Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level seas but winds will be below SCA levels
except for near Point Conception in Zone PZZ673. On Tuesday,
there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds, again mainly around
Point Conception. For Wednesday through Thursday, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. Seas of 10+ feet
will slowly diminish through late Monday afternoon.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Winds are below SCA levels but
SCA seas of 10+ feet are likely through late tonight. For Monday,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level
winds in the afternoon and evening hours, except a 50% chance
Wednesday evening.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in current forecast. Conditions are below SCA levels,
but choppy seas between 4 to 6 feet are likely through late
tonight. For Monday through Wednesday, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below SCA levels for most area, but the only
exception is the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where
there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds Tuesday afternoon and
evening. On Thursday and Friday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA
level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica.

Periods of light to moderate showers are likely through Monday,
mainly during the overnight to morning hours. There is a 10%
chance of thunderstorms during the same time frame. While showers
or thunderstorms are possible anywhere, the highest chances exist
south of Point Conception.

Long period swell from the west and the south are affecting the
coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can
make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small
vessels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon
      for zones 349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office