044
FXUS66 KLOX 271132
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
432 AM PDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...26/1153 PM.

There will be areas of night to morning coastal clouds and
generally benign conditions through Thursday. There will be a very
slow warming trend that will last through the Labor Day weekend
with high near to slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...27/255 AM.

The marine layer clouds have been rather vexing this morning.
Whereas ydy the clouds roared into and move the csts and even
into the vlys, tonight there is hardly any coverage at all. Most
likely the little vort lobe that passed overhead helped to spin up
an eddy. With no eddy or upper level lift this morning there are
much less low clouds. Without all of the marine air cooling max
temps today will rise 2 to 4 degrees. There is much less moisture
in the mid levels today and the odds of an afternoon TSTM is less
than 15 percent. There will likely still be some afternoon build
ups.

Tropical Storm Juliette is now forecast to move much faster than
it was ydy. The main moisture and instability assoc with the
remnants is also now shown to be well to the south of the area, so
the threat of showers or TSTMs is now reduced to a chc too low to
put into the fcst. There will be a grip of mid and high level
clouds overhead and LA/VTA counties will likely see mostly cloudy
skies. All of clouds will bring 2 to 3 degrees of cooling to LA
and VTA counties. The sunnier SLO and SBA counties, however, will
see some warming.

Friday now looks sunnier. There is even weak offshore flow from
the north and east to limit the low clouds to the Central Coast.
In addition hgts will rise to about 590 dam as an upper high to
the SE begins to strengthen. SLO and SBA counties will only warm 1
or 2 degrees, but LA/VTA counties will warm 3 to 6 degrees. Max
temps will end up near normal across the area.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...27/1210 AM.

Benign weather is on track for the Holiday Weekend and the rest of
the xtnd fcst. The area will be in between an upper high to the SE
and troffing to the NW. Dry SW flow between the two will cover the
state and eliminate any chc of a monsoon return. The upper high
will be the more dominate feature for Srn CA and hgts will rise to
about 592 dam. At the sfc there will be a slow increase in onshore
flow both to the east and the north.

Skies should be most clear save for the night through morning low
clouds across most of the coasts and perhaps some of the lower
vlys. The coverage should increase as will the clearing times on
Mon and Tue as the onshore flow increases.

There will be noticeable warming on Saturday with a few
additional degrees of warming on Sunday. This will bring most max
temps up to 1 to 3 degrees over normal. Look for 80s across the
coasts away from the beaches and 90s in the vlys. The bigger
onshore push on Monday and Tuesday will bring two days of slight 1
to 2 degree cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1131Z.

At 10Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1000 feet deep. with
an inversion top at 1700 feet with a temperature of 24 Celsius.

High confidence in KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and KWJF. Additionally
the threat of thunderstorms is expected to be over at least
through Thursday.

At KSMX and KSBA, there is a 20-30% chance of LIFR/IFR cigs and a
20% chance of IFR/MVFR cigs at KLGB from 13Z-16Z today. At KOXR,
KSMO, and KLAX, there is a 40% chance of no cigs developing this
morning. Timing of clearing of cigs may be off by 1.5 hours.

Very low confidence in any cigs development tonight, with cigs
not favored for sites south of Point Conception.

KLAX...There is a 40% chance of no cigs developing this morning,
and if cigs do develop, clearing time may be off by 1.5 hours. High
confidence in any east component staying under 8 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...27/248 AM.

High confidence in relatively light winds and small seas through
at least Friday morning, except for localized northwest wind gusts
of 20 to 25 knots from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island
each afternoon and evening. High confidence in increasing
northwest winds beyond 20 miles from shore Friday through the
weekend.

Additionally, a southerly swell from Tropical Storm Juliette will
arrive at the coasts Thursday and continue into Saturday. A
longer period but lower height southerly swell from the Southern
Hemisphere will follow and continue into early next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Kittell/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...Phillips

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Flagstaff Office