356
FXUS66 KLOX 051237
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
437 AM PST Thu Mar 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...05/127 AM.

A moderate to strong northerly wind event will impact the region
through today, then winds will turn to the northeast Friday
morning into a traditional moderate to strong Santa Ana Wind
event that will continue through Sunday. An overall warming trend
will continue through the weekend, with widespread highs in the
80s by Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...05/200 AM.

The north wind event is upon us. At the upper levels, the axis of
the trough has situated itself over the great basin, and the
upstream side of the trough has lined up perfectly with California
from north to south. Subsidence will help enhance the surface
gradients, thus wind speeds of 35-50 mph with higher elevation
gusts of 55-65 mph will be common through this morning.

All Warnings and Advisories remain unchanged, except for the
extension of the High Wind Warning (HWW) through 9 am this
morning. Winds will diminish some later this morning, but some of
the HWWs may need to be converted to Wind Advisories on the heels
of the expiry times. North winds will likely pulse up again in the
evening, but winds are expected to be quite weaker than this
morning. There still remains a low chance for additional Wind
Advisories to be issued in similar areas.

The secondary upper low will move into Southern California on
Friday, and surface pressure gradients will become more favorable
for offshore east to west flow. The upper level support will be
somewhat muted Friday, but the upper low will cut off and orient
itself such that northeast winds aloft will be almost in parallel
with surface winds. Subsidence will help strengthen the surface
winds, making Saturday the most potent day in terms of wind speeds
for this Santa Ana Wind event. Sunday will start off quite windy
as well, but a skosh weaker than Saturday due to weakening upper
level support.

This Santa Ana Wind event does appear to be a bit stronger than
the current northerly wind event we are in the middle of. The most
likely outcome in terms of wind speeds are expected to be 20-30
mph with gusts to 35-55 mph. Isolated gusts to 55-65 mph are
likely, especially across higher terrain. One of the
limiting/driving factors in the peak wind speeds is the
positioning of the cutoff low. If the upper level wind support is
favorable (magnitude and direction), there is a potential for
strong and damaging winds of 25-40 mph with gusts of 60-75 mph,
with highest chances across the mountains. The speed of the
southwest transit of the upper low will also impact the timing of
the peak winds. Over the last few days, things have been trending
slightly later, so stay tuned for better info on the timing as we
get closer to the weekend. With these conditions expected, a slew
of Wind Advisories and HWWs are likely Friday-Sunday.

IMPACTS: Through tonight, but peaking through this morning,
northerly winds across most of western LA County will create
potentially hazardous travel conditions across major freeways such
as the I-5, the I-405, and even travel delays due to crosswinds
at LAX. Downed trees and power lines resulting in power outages
are also possible. For Friday-Sundays Santa Ana event, there
again is a risk for downed trees and power lines (and power
outages), as well as hazardous travel conditions across the
typical Santa Ana wind corridor of LA and Ventura Counties.
Blowing debris may also create further hazards on the roads from
this morning through the weekend.

A mixed bag of temperature trends today as interior areas cool
significantly while coastal areas will warm significantly. The
cooler air will move over the region, but the downsloping
northerly winds will warm the lower elevation areas. Much of the
region will warm Friday, then Saturday and Sunday will warm up
steadily. By Sunday, most of LA and Ventura Counties will reach
the low to mid 80s, while Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo
Counties will be solidly in the mid to high 70s.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...05/200 AM.

As the timing of the movement of the upper low has slowed some,
so has the expected timing for this pesky low to exit the region.
Monday will be somewhat of a transition day. The Pacific Ridge
will begin nudging the low eastbound and surface gradients are
expected to rapidly shift from offshore towards neutral, likely
becoming onshore to the north and east by the afternoon. Coastal
areas will likely cool under the marine influence, but coastal
valleys and interior areas are a bit trickier depending on the
timing and strength of the winds. Quicker timing and stronger
onshore flow will favor cooling of coastal valleys and warming of
the interior (due to downsloping winds). Widespread cooling is
expected Tuesday and temps will dip into the 60s and 70s
everywhere. The increasing strength of the ridge will allow for
some dramatic warming Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1236Z.

At 12Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

Low to moderate confidence in all TAFs due to strong offshore
winds. Wind group changes may be off +/- 3 hours and gusts up to
10 kt less at any point when forecast. Mdt LLWS due to increasing
winds with height possible at all sites except KPRB and KSBP.
Highest confidence for KSBA, KLAX, KSMO, KBUR focused through 18Z.
Mdt turbulence also likely, especially over terrain.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF due to north winds.
Lower confidence in peak wind gusts, but higher confidence in
timing being between 10Z and 18Z. LLWS likely due to wind speeds
rapidly increasing with height through 18Z (+/- 3 hours).

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. LLWS possible due to wind
speeds rapidly increasing with height through 18Z (+/- 3 hours).

&&

.MARINE...05/404 AM.

Periods of hazardous marine conditions are expected through the
weekend. GALE Force wind gusts will continue across all the waters
through this morning, with steep, choppy, Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level seas. Winds across the inner waters will diminish to
SCA levels and then below advisory levels through the afternoon,
with GALEs continuing across the outer waters through late
tonight before dropping to near advisory levels through Friday.
The SCA level seas will slowly subside over the day Friday.

Each night through morning Friday through Sunday, there is a
30-40 percent of GALE Force NE wind gusts across the waters
inside the southern California bight, and a 40-50 percent chance
of SCA level winds along the nearshore waters of the Central Coast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PST this morning
      for zones 87-88-349>352-356-357-366-367-371>375-381>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zones
      349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning now in effect until 9 AM PST this morning
      for zones 353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PST this
      morning for zones 362-369-370-379-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 9 AM PST this morning for zones
      645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 10 AM PST this morning for zone
      655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BL
AVIATION...BL/KL
MARINE...Lund/Black
SYNOPSIS...BL

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office